Russia has declared victory in its devastating, nearly yearlong assault on Bakhmut, and its Wagner mercenaries have begun to withdraw. Ukraine, whose forces have made small gains on the outskirts, has signaled that it is now focused on making it difficult for Moscow to hold onto the city.
The 16-square-mile city, which was home to some 70,000 people before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, is in the eastern industrial region known as the Donbas. Months of artillery bombardment — followed by grinding street battles — reduced Bakhmut’s leafy streets and apartment buildings to an urban wasteland. All but a few thousand residents have fled.
Moscow has long viewed Bakhmut as a necessary prize in the campaign to seize the entire region known as the Donbas. But the city itself is not particularly valuable in military terms, according to U.S. officials. They believe that Moscow’s unrelenting commitment to wresting it from Ukraine was an indication of the Kremlin’s desperation for a battlefield victory after months of losses and retreats along the northeastern and southern fronts.
Ukraine had used national guard and border guard troops to defend the city’s perimeter, then relied on more experienced combat soldiers in recent months as its hold on the city weakened. Soldiers fought in close-range combat from abandoned buildings, basements and trenches, with thousands of others stationed in surrounding fields and villages.
Losses on both sides have been staggering, especially given the minimal amount of territory that changed hands, although there is no reliable estimate of the toll. President Biden said over the weekend that around 100,000 Russian soldiers had been killed or wounded in the battle for the city. Ukraine has also suffered substantial losses.
Analysts say that Russia has lost so much in its attempts to secure Bakhmut that it seems unlikely Moscow’s troops will be able to marshal new resources to mount successful battles on the same scale elsewhere in the region. Ukraine’s defense of Bakhmut may have degraded Russia’s ability to immediately seize more territory, and the Ukrainian military may be looking to exploit any weaknesses that emerge as Russia rotates its troops.